Handicapping the Oscar noms is a professional imperative, even if it actually means nothing this side of the world (unless we Flips land that first nod). While my few predictions don’t see print, the process is still undertaken online, for the online readers of my reviews. (Full list of Nominees at moviecitynews.com here.)

As I wrote a few weeks ago (Oscar Watching, January 6), I was handicapping the Oscar noms after seeing Benjamin Button. I made particular mentions, among them

Wall E is locked to win Animation, while Man on Wire, the electrifying story of French high-wire artist Philippe Petit’s attempt to walk between the two towers of the World Trade Center back in the ’70s, is likely to win Documentary.

Looks like this remains the case. Even as I hoped for Wall-E to get that BP nod, Pixar’s best ever received 6 noms – for Animation, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Original Screenplay. It will most likely win one for Animation, but it has a good chance for two others – Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Man on Wire for Documentary, unless Herzog’s Encounters at the End of the World nabs the gold.

Waltz with Bashir is a foreign-language (from Israel) Documentary presented in Animation. It will likely be nominated in Foreign Language, maybe even win it.

It did get the Nom. I’m sure of it, Foreign Language is a lock. If there’s anything that I wanted to predict, it was the slate of surprises. At the time I wrote the predictions, The Reader was only slowly getting the buzz and recognitions. It was there, but not quite as The Wrestler or Happy go Lucky.  I wrote this back then:

While I recognize TDK as one of 2008’s best, it is definitely not the best, and I would rather see another film included in the 5 nominees instead of TDK. It should be Wall-E but Disney seems to have quit its campaign. If it’s true that the PGA gets 4/5 against the Oscars, either Frost/Nixon or TDK is replaced by The Wrestler, Doubt or a surprise from Rachel Getting Married or Happy Go Lucky.

Surprise! The Reader for TDK, and Kate Winslet gets an Actress nom for it and a snub for Revolutionary Road.

Three films will surely get the lion’s share of nominations. Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and Benjamin Button, with the last getting the most nominations…

This brings a total of 11 possible nominations for BB, give or take 2 (Support Acting and Sound). BB is a technical marvel, even if it doesn’t win Picture, it will likely win a number of technicals.

BB got 13, Slumdog received 10, and Milk tied TDK with 8, although TDK’s noms were mostly technicals. BB will likely win the two categories which made it a cinematic wonder, and each won’t have been successfull without the other (in fact they worked seamlessly) – Visual Effects and Make-Up.

 MARK MY WORDS: the results will be mostly predictable by now, but I sense a MAJOR UPSET.

The Oscars air locally Live on the Velvet Channel Feb 23, 7am.

Current thoughts on the 2009 Oscars race. (UPDATE)

The race for Hollywood’s most coveted prize this year is heating up for  good reason: there’s a lot of good movies in the running (most have yet to be shown here in Manila, Benjamin Button opens on Thursday, after the MMFF ban).

Today, the Producers Guild announced their nominees for Best Picture, and it came down to:

Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight

Animated:
Wall-E
Bolt
Kung-Fu Panda

Documentary:
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water
Standard Operating Procedure

Based on current winning tallies and buzz, Wall E is locked to win Animation, while Man on Wire, the electrifying story of French high-wire artist Philippe Petit’s attempt to walk between the two towers of the World Trade Center back in the ’70s, is likely to win Documentary. However, there is a curious hybrid film which has the potential of being nominated in three categories that it’s technically qualified in: Waltz with Bashir is a foreign-language (from Israel) Documentary presented in Animation. It will likely be nominated in Foreign Language, maybe even win it.

Of the potential Picture nominees, I have only seen TDK, Wall-E and last night Benjamin Button. It’s been a while since I’ve seen a movie in its pirated format even if dvds of Milk and Gran Torino are all over the Metro’s streets. I have a feeling Slumdog Millionaire is too. Next week I’m seeing The Changeling, from UIP, but it’s still up in the air if Angelina will get her acting nom, even if she deserves it at this point.

While I recognize TDK as one of 2008’s best, it is definitely not the best, and I would rather see another film included in the 5 nominees instead of TDK. It should be Wall-E but Disney seems to have quit its campaign. If it’s true that the PGA gets 4/5 against the Oscars, either Frost/Nixon or TDK is replaced by The Wrestler, Doubt or a surprise from Rachel Getting Married or Happy Go Lucky.

Three films will surely get the lion’s share of nominations. Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and Benjamin Button, with the last getting the most nominations, namely: 

Button is likely to win Makeup, and has a good chance of winning Cinematography, Costume, and Art Direction. If it wins either or both Direction and Editing apart from one more category mentioned above, it wins Picture.

Let’s see what the DGA and WGA will nominate when they make their announcements later this week. The Globes will be held on the 18th, and the Oscar noms announced on the 22nd.

UPDATE. I made the draconian mistake of forgetting to include Visual Effects as another possible category nomination for Benj Button. Today, the Academy just announced the shortlist for VFX noms:

The seven titles that will vie for one of three available nominations include year-end arrivals “Australia” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” as well as summer popcorn movies “Journey,” “The Dark Knight,” “Hellboy II: The Golden Army,” “Iron Man” and “The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor.”

Also, the  USC Libraries 21st Annual Scripter Award includes BB and Slumdog Millionaire among the finalists.

This brings a total of 11 possible nominations for BB, give or take 2 (Support Acting and Sound). BB is a technical marvel, even if it doesn’t win Picture, it will likely win a number of technicals.