Handicapping the Oscar noms is a professional imperative, even if it actually means nothing this side of the world (unless we Flips land that first nod). While my few predictions don’t see print, the process is still undertaken online, for the online readers of my reviews. (Full list of Nominees at moviecitynews.com here.)

As I wrote a few weeks ago (Oscar Watching, January 6), I was handicapping the Oscar noms after seeing Benjamin Button. I made particular mentions, among them

Wall E is locked to win Animation, while Man on Wire, the electrifying story of French high-wire artist Philippe Petit’s attempt to walk between the two towers of the World Trade Center back in the ’70s, is likely to win Documentary.

Looks like this remains the case. Even as I hoped for Wall-E to get that BP nod, Pixar’s best ever received 6 noms – for Animation, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Original Screenplay. It will most likely win one for Animation, but it has a good chance for two others – Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Man on Wire for Documentary, unless Herzog’s Encounters at the End of the World nabs the gold.

Waltz with Bashir is a foreign-language (from Israel) Documentary presented in Animation. It will likely be nominated in Foreign Language, maybe even win it.

It did get the Nom. I’m sure of it, Foreign Language is a lock. If there’s anything that I wanted to predict, it was the slate of surprises. At the time I wrote the predictions, The Reader was only slowly getting the buzz and recognitions. It was there, but not quite as The Wrestler or Happy go Lucky.  I wrote this back then:

While I recognize TDK as one of 2008’s best, it is definitely not the best, and I would rather see another film included in the 5 nominees instead of TDK. It should be Wall-E but Disney seems to have quit its campaign. If it’s true that the PGA gets 4/5 against the Oscars, either Frost/Nixon or TDK is replaced by The Wrestler, Doubt or a surprise from Rachel Getting Married or Happy Go Lucky.

Surprise! The Reader for TDK, and Kate Winslet gets an Actress nom for it and a snub for Revolutionary Road.

Three films will surely get the lion’s share of nominations. Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and Benjamin Button, with the last getting the most nominations…

This brings a total of 11 possible nominations for BB, give or take 2 (Support Acting and Sound). BB is a technical marvel, even if it doesn’t win Picture, it will likely win a number of technicals.

BB got 13, Slumdog received 10, and Milk tied TDK with 8, although TDK’s noms were mostly technicals. BB will likely win the two categories which made it a cinematic wonder, and each won’t have been successfull without the other (in fact they worked seamlessly) – Visual Effects and Make-Up.

 MARK MY WORDS: the results will be mostly predictable by now, but I sense a MAJOR UPSET.

The Oscars air locally Live on the Velvet Channel Feb 23, 7am.

From Variety.com:

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences has unveiled the nine semifinalists for the foreign-language award, the first shortlist to reflect the new voting rules in the category:

These are the nine:

Austria, “Revanche” (Gotz Spielmann, director);
Canada, “The Necessities of Life” (Benoit Pilon);
France, “The Class” (Laurent Cantet);
Germany, “The Baader Meinhof Complex” (Uli Edel);
Israel, “Waltz With Bashir” (Ari Folman);
Japan, “Departures” (Yojiro Takita);
Mexico, “Tear This Heart Out” (Roberto Sneider);
Sweden, “Everlasting Moments” (Jan Troell);
Turkey, “3 Monkeys” (Nuri Bilge Ceylan).

The roster includes four from Europe and two from North America.

Under the new voting procedure, instituted after last year’s ceremony, the Phase I committee screened the 65 eligible films between mid-October and Jan. 10. That panel consists of several hundred Los Angeles-based members.

That group’s top six choices were augmented by three additional selections voted by the Academy’s foreign-language film award executive committee — an innovation this year.

Every year, there are surprise inclusions and omissions. On Tuesday, few quarreled with the choices, but many were surprised that Italy’s “Gomorrah” (directed by Matteo Garrone) was not on the list. Less surprising, but still mentioned, were Chile’s “Tony Manero” (Pablo Larrain), Jordan’s first entry “Captain Abu Raed” (Amir Matalqa), Kazakhstan’s “Tulpan” (Sergey Dvortsevoy) and Norway’s “O’Horten” (Bent Hamer).

The shortlist will be winnowed down to the five 2008 nominees by specially selected committees in New York and Los Angeles. The committee members will spend Friday, Saturday and Sunday viewing three of the films each day.

The five nominees will be announced, along with those in other categories, on Jan. 22.

Ayan, ha. Walang Ploning. Wala ang Ploning sa radar. I have suggestions for the next Philippine entry. Pero sakin na lang muna. Let me just say at least, it was a valiant effort.

It’s surprising that Sweden opted for its official entry, Everlasting Moments, instead of the acclaimed Let the Right One In. Also surprising not to see Italy’s Gomorrah, which had early festival buzz. But the Oscar goes to… Waltz with Bashir.